Tuesday, April 7, 2009



COPIA PHASE 1
Napa Valley Life Magazine
April/May 2009

Real Estate Article by Charles Bogue

When the doors to the American Center for Wine, Food and the Arts were closed in November of 2008 the use of the 80,000 square foot structure and the surrounding gardens was lost, but let’s not forget that so much had been gained.

Commonly known as Copia, the creation and activities of this landmark relocated the commercial center of gravity in the Napa Valley. Despite a history of mounting debt and declining revenue, it provided a civic magnet that attracted investment beyond all expectation.

Opening festivities for the combined museum, education and entertainment center fell tragically in the week of 2001 when the world was changed by the events of 9/11. In the critical winter months that followed flight travel ceased, visitor traffic declined and the state of the world could give little time or attention to a monument celebrating the luxuries of wine, food and art.

Despite its apparent temporary failing, history will likely cite that we are in fact witnessing a very successful first phase of Robert and Margaret Mondavi’s life dream. The subject of endless critique by locals and visitors alike, Copia has suffered a continuous identity crisis in search of its true mission and economic sustainability as a profitable showplace for the wine, food and art in America.

Perhaps the focus placed on Copia’s inability to create a viable financial model has hidden a less visible but far greater value that the center has brought to our community. An opinion expressed by local developer Harry Price and others invested in our downtown revival is that the Mondavi commitment to place Copia in the City of Napa created a financial “tipping point” causing a civic renaissance affecting the City of Napa as well as the entire county.

Anchoring the world of food and wine, the creation of Copia shifted the geography of the south and east Napa Valley as hotels, restaurants and wine bars followed in the wake of capital infusion and defined vision. The revenue of tax dollars created by the Napa River Inn, the Westin Verasa, the Oxbow Public Market, a restored Napa Valley Opera House, an approved Ritz-Carlton hotel and numerous office and retail structures has far exceeded any individual losses created during Copia’s seven years of infancy.

At a local gathering last month, the city of Napa’s new Community Development Director Tambri Heyden sought the first public input on an eight-month $700,000 program to create a community vision of downtown Napa for the next century. In creating this “Specific Plan” the city has wisely identified the 12-acre Copia property as on of its three “catalyst sites” to receive immediate and particular attention in the development process.

Robert Mondavi bought the original land for Copia and donated over $20,000,000 toward its completed construction. The total cost was estimated at $55,000,000 and contributions of private donations, not including membership, have been in excess of $50,000,000. More than just dollar capital, members of the local community have contributed thousands of hours as volunteers assisting in the operations of the programs inside the building and activities on the surrounding grounds.

As one walks the once exquisite edible gardens at the edge of the Napa River, there emerges a hope that one day soon all the resource and energy that turned this dream into reality will not to be lost. A pioneer of sorts, the American Center for Wine, Food and the Arts evolved from tourist center into community center, providing musical celebrations, movie nights, weddings, fund raisers and a farmer’s market benefiting local residents and supporting local causes.

As the future of Copia winds it way through the courts its fate will likely end up in the hands of a selected development group intent on defining a more successful economic model for the property. The community will rely on city planners and elected officials to determine what the future use of the property will be and what role, if any, the expansive gardens will play in that resurrection.

Efforts have been made to maintain the organic gardens with minimal dollars available. With little local authority it is unlikely that the quality and condition of the organic beds can be kept to their original standard. Where Master Gardener docents once lead curious groups on educational tours, neglected beds and empty fountains await a rebirth from enthused ownership and funding.

Whether this living legacy of gardens wills survive the developer test of economic utility remains to be seen; just a short distance away a soon to be completed bridge gives hope and optimism to this eastern perimeter of the Napa Downtown Specific Plan. Looking across the river to the surveyed site of the Ritz Carlton, one can begin to feel the energy and possibility for the second phase of Copia’s ultimate destiny.

As time moves forward, we will see a more energetic and mature version of the Mondavis’ original dream created in the community or possibly by the community.

It’s not impossible that we take our destiny into our own hands. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal was entitled “Local Economics Seek Own Rival”. With vision and courage, we may find in Copia the opportunity to determine our own collective economic and social future. As the article cites, “Cities, counties and states across the nation are launching home-grown economic stimulus plans aimed at spurring local spending and keeping small businesses afloat during the recession.”

Main Street can wait no longer for Wall Street. Local residents living and working within the community will have a greater effect on their economic destiny than any grand plan conceived in Washington or Sacramento.

The future vision of downtown Napa will be determined as land uses are debated and the new specific plan is constructed. The voter passage of the Flood Control Project combined with the announcement that Copia would be placed in the City of Napa created a surge of international interest and corporate investment in our riverfront community.


Phase I of Copia has come to completion. It is with Phase II that we will determine, as a community, the fate of the property, the grounds and the dream of Robert Mondavi.

Charles Bogue is a Broker with Coldwell Banker Brokers of the Valley in Napa. He can be reached at phone: 258-5221 or e-mail: cbogue@cbnapavalley.com

Friday, April 3, 2009


COUNTY ASTROLOGER
Real Talk, Napa Valley Register
April 4, 2009 Edition

Real Estate Article by Charles Bogue

As if he were not already busy enough, it appears that John Tuteur, Napa County Assessor, Recorder and County Clerk, may have taken on an additional title this week as County Astrologer.

Caught in the fragile position of reporting to county officials the declining state of our local tax assessment base and resulting revenues, he was quoted in the Napa Valley Register as “warning county officials to expect no growth in property values this year, and an overall decline each additional year through 2013.”

Historically an excellent communicator, I would suspect that Mr. Tuteur’s intended comment was a reasonable warning regarding “assessed property valuation” and not an attempt to predict the direction of property market values over the next five years.

In the estimation of our Assessor, we are seeing home values return to the “pre-bubble” levels of 1999 and 2000. Homes purchased prior to that time appear to not have had their value affected and will likely not receive a reduced valuation for the purpose of assessment.

Once a year, on January 1, the Assessor’s office reviews the valuation of your property to determine if reassessment is appropriate. Approximately 5,000 homes in Napa County were “re-set” in 2008 and it is anticipated that an additional 2,500 to 3,000 will be adjusted in the January 2009 assessment.

In a gathering before a group of Realtors this week Mr. Tuteur stated that homes subject to possible adjustments will be reviewed by his department and adjustments will be made without the need of any request or submission on behalf of the home owner.

Assessing the source of the current downturn, Assessor Tuteur was quoted to say “Even though homes are selling, they’re selling at these very low prices with more than 50 percent of the market (in Napa County) in foreclosure.” An important point of clarity in this statement is that the reference is that 50 percent of the home “sold” in the county are foreclosure sales and not that 50 percent of homes that exist in the county are in foreclosure.

Foreclosure statistics become complex when reports often include the same home as sold twice; first as transfer under lender foreclosure and a second time when sold as a bank owned property.

To this point, Ken Rosen of Urban Exonomics at UC Berkeley states that “It’s a repeat-sales index, which overstates foreclosures. The index compares values when the same house changes hands twice- which has led to charges that it (the index) overemphasizes foreclosed homes, because so many of them are currently flooding the market”.

The local housing story has not been bright and it has certainly been filled with financial tragedy. Mr. Tuteur’s reporting of current realities is necessary for financial planning and protecting our county’s future. We are fortunate to have someone so qualified, dedicated and committed to this public service.

When it comes to predicting the future of the housing market opinions are speculative at best. Contrary to reports of gloom and doom, economist Thomas Lawler notes that “if there is a perception on the part of home buyers that the economy might start to rebound in the foreseeable future, then home sales could rebound before the economy does.”

We can assemble endless facts and figures from the past to tell us where we have been and how we got here; yet, when it comes to the future there is no crystal ball or sage astrologist that can tell us when the market will turn or what lies ahead.

Charles Bogue is a Broker with Coldwell Banker Brokers of the Valley in Napa. He can be reached at phone: 258-5221 or e-mail: cbogue@cbnapavalley.com