COUNTY ASTROLOGER
Real Talk, Napa Valley Register
April 4, 2009 Edition
April 4, 2009 Edition
Real Estate Article by Charles Bogue
As if he were not already busy enough, it appears that John Tuteur, Napa County Assessor, Recorder and County Clerk, may have taken on an additional title this week as County Astrologer.
Caught in the fragile position of reporting to county officials the declining state of our local tax assessment base and resulting revenues, he was quoted in the Napa Valley Register as “warning county officials to expect no growth in property values this year, and an overall decline each additional year through 2013.”
Historically an excellent communicator, I would suspect that Mr. Tuteur’s intended comment was a reasonable warning regarding “assessed property valuation” and not an attempt to predict the direction of property market values over the next five years.
In the estimation of our Assessor, we are seeing home values return to the “pre-bubble” levels of 1999 and 2000. Homes purchased prior to that time appear to not have had their value affected and will likely not receive a reduced valuation for the purpose of assessment.
Once a year, on January 1, the Assessor’s office reviews the valuation of your property to determine if reassessment is appropriate. Approximately 5,000 homes in Napa County were “re-set” in 2008 and it is anticipated that an additional 2,500 to 3,000 will be adjusted in the January 2009 assessment.
In a gathering before a group of Realtors this week Mr. Tuteur stated that homes subject to possible adjustments will be reviewed by his department and adjustments will be made without the need of any request or submission on behalf of the home owner.
Assessing the source of the current downturn, Assessor Tuteur was quoted to say “Even though homes are selling, they’re selling at these very low prices with more than 50 percent of the market (in Napa County) in foreclosure.” An important point of clarity in this statement is that the reference is that 50 percent of the home “sold” in the county are foreclosure sales and not that 50 percent of homes that exist in the county are in foreclosure.
Foreclosure statistics become complex when reports often include the same home as sold twice; first as transfer under lender foreclosure and a second time when sold as a bank owned property.
To this point, Ken Rosen of Urban Exonomics at UC Berkeley states that “It’s a repeat-sales index, which overstates foreclosures. The index compares values when the same house changes hands twice- which has led to charges that it (the index) overemphasizes foreclosed homes, because so many of them are currently flooding the market”.
The local housing story has not been bright and it has certainly been filled with financial tragedy. Mr. Tuteur’s reporting of current realities is necessary for financial planning and protecting our county’s future. We are fortunate to have someone so qualified, dedicated and committed to this public service.
When it comes to predicting the future of the housing market opinions are speculative at best. Contrary to reports of gloom and doom, economist Thomas Lawler notes that “if there is a perception on the part of home buyers that the economy might start to rebound in the foreseeable future, then home sales could rebound before the economy does.”
We can assemble endless facts and figures from the past to tell us where we have been and how we got here; yet, when it comes to the future there is no crystal ball or sage astrologist that can tell us when the market will turn or what lies ahead.
Charles Bogue is a Broker with Coldwell Banker Brokers of the Valley in Napa. He can be reached at phone: 258-5221 or e-mail: cbogue@cbnapavalley.com
Caught in the fragile position of reporting to county officials the declining state of our local tax assessment base and resulting revenues, he was quoted in the Napa Valley Register as “warning county officials to expect no growth in property values this year, and an overall decline each additional year through 2013.”
Historically an excellent communicator, I would suspect that Mr. Tuteur’s intended comment was a reasonable warning regarding “assessed property valuation” and not an attempt to predict the direction of property market values over the next five years.
In the estimation of our Assessor, we are seeing home values return to the “pre-bubble” levels of 1999 and 2000. Homes purchased prior to that time appear to not have had their value affected and will likely not receive a reduced valuation for the purpose of assessment.
Once a year, on January 1, the Assessor’s office reviews the valuation of your property to determine if reassessment is appropriate. Approximately 5,000 homes in Napa County were “re-set” in 2008 and it is anticipated that an additional 2,500 to 3,000 will be adjusted in the January 2009 assessment.
In a gathering before a group of Realtors this week Mr. Tuteur stated that homes subject to possible adjustments will be reviewed by his department and adjustments will be made without the need of any request or submission on behalf of the home owner.
Assessing the source of the current downturn, Assessor Tuteur was quoted to say “Even though homes are selling, they’re selling at these very low prices with more than 50 percent of the market (in Napa County) in foreclosure.” An important point of clarity in this statement is that the reference is that 50 percent of the home “sold” in the county are foreclosure sales and not that 50 percent of homes that exist in the county are in foreclosure.
Foreclosure statistics become complex when reports often include the same home as sold twice; first as transfer under lender foreclosure and a second time when sold as a bank owned property.
To this point, Ken Rosen of Urban Exonomics at UC Berkeley states that “It’s a repeat-sales index, which overstates foreclosures. The index compares values when the same house changes hands twice- which has led to charges that it (the index) overemphasizes foreclosed homes, because so many of them are currently flooding the market”.
The local housing story has not been bright and it has certainly been filled with financial tragedy. Mr. Tuteur’s reporting of current realities is necessary for financial planning and protecting our county’s future. We are fortunate to have someone so qualified, dedicated and committed to this public service.
When it comes to predicting the future of the housing market opinions are speculative at best. Contrary to reports of gloom and doom, economist Thomas Lawler notes that “if there is a perception on the part of home buyers that the economy might start to rebound in the foreseeable future, then home sales could rebound before the economy does.”
We can assemble endless facts and figures from the past to tell us where we have been and how we got here; yet, when it comes to the future there is no crystal ball or sage astrologist that can tell us when the market will turn or what lies ahead.
Charles Bogue is a Broker with Coldwell Banker Brokers of the Valley in Napa. He can be reached at phone: 258-5221 or e-mail: cbogue@cbnapavalley.com
No comments:
Post a Comment